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Identify Market Disruptions

Introduction

Xeneta can visualize market movements with its graphing functionality. This is immediately useful for identifying how the market reacts to world events and gives you the insight to be proactive about your freight procurement.

Long-term vs. Short-term

As an example, we’ll take a look at the trends of the past year between China East Main and the US West Coast from 12-10-2019 to 12-10-2020 .

View example in Xeneta

In the image above, we have plotted the short-term (yellow) and long-term (blue) market averages for the past year. We can clearly see that by October 2020 the price to ship freight on short-term contracts is almost double the price of running long-term contracts in that period. The rapid increase in short-term prices began around June and continued to rise until October, where it stabilized.

With short-term prices significantly above long-term prices, the market will tend to strongly prefer shipping freight on short-term contracts. This suggests that, as a result, market participants with long-term contracts at average rate levels will see an increased risk for their cargo getting rolled.

Surcharges

Coming into IMO 2020, most market players were unsure of what would happen to prices when the new surcharge came into effect worldwide. In the image below, we have a snapshot of the Shanghai to Hamburg tradelane around the beginning of 2020.

View example in Xeneta

Using Xeneta’s data to see sudden movements in the short-term market (for instance due to regulatory changes, as in this example) allows you to foresee potential risks — like increased chances for cargo getting rolled or potential increased rate levels for new long-term rates.

While Xeneta does not speculate about future prices, it can still help you identify market movements and can prepare your organization for a change in your approach to how and when you procure and negotiate rates in the market.